What a fantastic week its been in World Cup land! Germany have gone from brilliantly pulling themselves back from the brink against Sweden to putting a total Nation to shame with their spectacular exit to South Korea in one of the biggest WC upsets in history. England have gone from potential world beaters (because the press wouldn't have it any other way...) to losers, but at least losers with a long term strategy. Even the Great God Ronaldo looked oddly mediocre as Portugal made life hard for themselves against a well drilled and passionate Iran (who overall did well considering sharing a group with the Portuguese and Spain). The Spain-Morocco 2-2 thriller on the same night was even more exciting. Spain join France, Argentina and Belgium as the tournament's great enigmas. So far its been a cracking World Cup. Partly because it has bucked the trend of previous tournaments and avoided of dull group matches lacking in adventure or ambition. Frances 0-0 with Denmark was the only goalless match to date and the only true turkey so far. How gutting it will be if Russia 2018 is saving up the stinkers for the knockout phase. Beyond this, as Barney Ronay pointed out in today's Guardian Sport it has to date been the tournament of teams rather than the individual. Pretty much every group has been tight, competitive, full of juicy stories and subplots. The underdogs have very much come to the party, with South Korea, Nigeria, Japan, Peru, Panama and Morocco all in their own way contributing to the drama (some of those countries may question if they might still be in Russia had they showed up a bit earlier?). A nice mixture of flaws and promise from many of the big guns make it near impossible to call a winner from them at this stage. Putting aside how disgraceful some of the press/media bashing of the Germans since their dramatic exit has been, it was a World Cup moment. That final twist was something this tournament needed. Like the best dramatic thriller, it took one final twist, with Germany messing up big time, having looked to have saved themselves in the previous act. What makes it even more fascinating was that Argentina looked the more likely fall guys after their disaster against Croatia. Not to mention the whole VAR drama! With some mouth watering ties ahead, here are my predictions for the world of sixteen.
France VS. Argentina
Perhaps the most mouth watering of the Last 16 matches is probably the hardest to predict. On the one hand the French have flattered to deceive in all three of their group matches, yet will be oddly happy with their progress so far. There have been no major drama as of yet (compared to some they had a reasonable group). As uncertain as Deschamps men have looked going forward, they at least look solid with the promise of more. On the other hand they have not truly been tested yet. A bigger test may have come against the Danes if not for the fact that the Danish only needed a point to advance. The manager deserves credit for identifying the importance of Olivier Giroud as the unsung Emile Heskey style foil that could give Griezmann and Mbappe the freedom to shine. France along with Belgium have perhaps the greatest depth of talent of the whole World Cup. The big problem is their shaky history of team bonding and gelling at just the right time. Either the French have smartly timed their World Cup development to the point it might just carry them to the big prize come mid-July, or they are a divided team of talented individuals just waiting to be exposed.
In the other (Lighter Blue corner) we have what maybe the worse Argentina side in history. Or at the very least the worst managed Argentina side. In perfect contrast to France who cruised through without approaching anything like their best, Messi and co. pulled out a truly late great escape having looked a total shambles. There was a certain grit and fight to their 2-1 victory over Nigeria that impressed me and could suggest they maybe hope for this side yet. That Marcos Rojo was the unlikely hero added to the compelling evidence that this could oddly be a turning point for this group of players. Maschermano may have looked dead on his feet at times, but his experience could prove important in guiding this group of players not least against a fairly in-experienced French group. The group stages should serve as a wake up call for Argentina. They can not afford anymore scrappy performances. Maschermano must be ready for battle, and prepared to provide crisp service to the front men. Di Maria could be an important outlet for them too, providing a rare piece of pace in an ageing side. Speaking of turning points Messi's much improved display against Nigeria and the second chance he has to light up the World Cup could be the perfect setup for one of the World's great players. France have greater pace, and are easily the better pure footballing side. If they get into their groove and Argentina have more defensive headaches I can't see any other result than a fairly comfortable French victory. However, if Argentina dig in, win the physical battle (which is a big French weak point), and get better service to the talented attackers then I smell an upset. That France go in as favourites I think may suit Argentina also.
Prediction: France 1-2 Argentina
Uruguay VS. Portugal
Speaking of matches that could be decided with blood and thunder mixed with street smarts and know how that may well be the edge that Uruguay may bring to their match against Portugal. Despite not looking that much better than France in the group phase, Oscar Tabarez's men normally have a solid shape and make life difficult for teams to get into their flow. They have a lot of big tournament experience and one of the meanest defences at this World Cup. Diego Godin has been a true leader so far. One of the great players of the tournament so far, Godin has proved that old fashion defending and leadership can still be kinda cool. His attempts at keeping Ronaldo quiet will be a key to the game. But what might actually win the game for Uruguay could be their ability to out-Portugal Portugal. Not withstanding Ronaldo's achievements and consistent importance to his country, its worth remembering that it was it was more their solid base and dogged instincts that paved the way for an unexpected Euros win two years ago. Ronaldo had his moments of course, but it was actually his injury and withdrawal that opened the door for Portugal to win the game. Portugal were mediocre two years ago and they remain mediocre now. In short, even if Ronaldo reproduces his Spain form it may not be enough if Uruguay are on their game. As a team Uruguay are one of the best units of any, and of course have one of the best front lines of tournament. A tight game it might prove, but this time I think that will play into Uruguay's hands.
Prediction: Uruguay 1-0 Portugal
Spain VS. Russia
So far Russia have been such beautiful and likeable hosts both on and off the pitch (sorry rest of the World its true!). Its one of the big World Cup cliches that for the tournament to be enjoyable the host have to come to the party and at least make it passed the group. So mission accomplished for Russia with flying colours. Yes, outside of Uruguay they were in a pretty easy group, but still they were largely underrated before a ball was kicked and has played with impressive spirit and style. Even a thrashing against Spain would do little to damage this team's reputation. Make life at least a bit awkward for the previous World Champions than it will be job done for Russia at this tournament. Spain meanwhile are hard to predict. On their day they play some of the best football you'll see. They have a decent team spirit and again plenty of depth. But that defence does look shaky when exposed to pace or quality set pieces. It would not surprise anyone if they took home the big prize come the end. But right now there are just as many questions as answers and the sense that this team for now may have peaked. The more direct style of play involving the muscle of Costa up top may prove a fruitful way forward.
Prediction: Spain 3-0 Russia
Croatia VS. Denmark
Eriksen VS. Modric indeed sounds a thrilling contest. The differences between the two sides is that whereas so much of Denmark's success is dependent on Eriksen making them tick, Croatia have greater depth and other players who can step up should their top player go missing (Rakitic for example has been one of the most inventive wingers of recent years). The other difference is that Croatia have more than style of play and ways to win. They can go direct, or play free flowing passing football, or they can do a mixture of the two. They are good from set pieces and decent defensively also. How tough they are in midfield may prove telling later on. But there's no denying that Croatia have the most dynamic and exciting midfield of any team in Russia. Denmark have some good raw talent who are not quite ready to wow on the big stage yet. For this match they will likely sit deep and hope that a strong defence will give them a chance of picking up the scraps from set pieces or whatever Eriksen can do on the counter. The problem is this could lead to Eriksen not having enough of the ball to influence the game. Even if he did, the Croatian midfield may still have more than enough to out run him.
Prediction: Croatia 3-1 Denmark
Brazil VS. Mexico
The big story here for me is more what Mexico could do than Brazil. The tesk for them is to make history and go one better than previous generations. Also, if they could add Brazil to their scalps having already seen of the Germans it would add even more sheen to their thrilling World Cup adventure. I think you have to overlook their hammering against Sweden in the final group match. Sweden were desperate for the win, whereas Mexico merely needed a point, and were simply over powered on the day. All in all this looks a promising group of players. Their performance in the opener against Germany is one of the best team displays so far. If Mexico can repeat the work rate of that day along with the fluid mix of impressive defending and sharp breakaways I think they will be able to give Brazil plenty of problems. The one thing they will need to improve on from the group phase is to be more clinical in the final third. Either a better final ball or more clinical finisher will be needed here. Chances are Brazil will have more of the ball, meaning Mexico may get few golden chances. I think a certain weight will be hanging on Mexico almost as much as that of Brazil. Brazil are slowly working their way into the tournament. Not convincing for sure, but I think there is enough there to suggest they could still justify their position as tournament favourites. The difference in the end I think will be that Brazil have the greater big match experience. A Mexico upset would not shock me. I think they could push Brazil down to the wire. But I think when it comes to the crunch Brazil may just edge it.
Prediction: Brazil 1-1 Mexico (Brazil to win 3-2 on Penalties).
Belgium VS. Japan
Aside from their not so sporting tactics in the final half of the match with Poland, it is very hard not to cheer Japan on or at least to wish them well. They are the classic plucky underdogs. They play with decent style, and as a group are one of tightest lite. They have enough flair to create problems, yet it is their mental toughness that carries them. Sometimes its more important to stay in matches and know when to get that second wind than to go all out from the start. Japan showed this in their opener against Colombia. Its fair to say they've had plenty of luck far too. Playing against ten men for nearly the whole match against Colombia certainly helped. Senegal can consider themselves very unlucky to go out based on picking up more yellow cards than the Japanese. Overall the African Nation played more consistently than Japan over the three games. A lack of cutting edge is what did for them in the end. Japan will need plenty of luck again against Belgium. For Japan see Russia. They would love to curse a upset. But realistically they have punched above their weight and have done fantastic to make it out of the group. The peak for this golden generation of Belgium players needs to come soon. They will be delighted with their draw (though much tougher tests await should they get through Japan). I think Belgium's fluid passing, movement and pace will weigh this ageing Japan side out. Even if Japan can hold out for an hour, in the end I think they will be out done. If an upset for Japan, set pieces may well be crucial.
Prediction: Belgium 2-0 Japan
Sweden VS. Switzerland
A nice dark horse of a tie. Both sides overlooked, both looking capable of surprises. Sweden have seen better days, but they still have a good team spirit and remain one of the toughest teams to play again against. Likewise the Swish are tight at the back, but whereas Sweden are a more more a tougher side, Switzerland have one of the great flair players in Shaqiri (as it stands still of Stoke City), and are impressive on the break. In a match involving two such industry sides, it could be Shaqiri's midfield partner Granit Xhaka who may hold the key for Switzerland. When on his game Xhaka is effective at doing the nasty work in the middle and decent at setting play up. Sadly, for both club and country he doesn't do this nearly enough and often loses his rag. Likewise, Shaqiri often goes missing in big games, but with him there is at least the magic to change a game on the blink of the eye. Despite a lack of good attackers up top, I think Sweden's more direct game maybe effective enough to over power Switzerland. I think there is a good team spirit to this Swedish side also.
Prediction: Sweden 2-1 Switzerland
Colombia VS. England
The questions will rage on about if Southgate palled off a tactically master class in resting so many players and avoiding the tougher side of the group by losing to Belgium and coming runners up, rather than winning the group, or if the less than impressive line-up and performance has halted momentum. The finally verdict for many will come after the result against Colombia. First of all I think there is a danger of beating an underrated Colombia side. They'v not played to their best yet, but sometimes its more impressive to find a way to win when not quite at your best. Against Senegal they just kept going and in the end beat them into submission. Their support is one of the most passionate and colourful, and there is still plenty of talent. 2014 Golden Boot Winner James Rodriguz is likely to make a small cameo at best. Good news for England, he hasn't scored yet, but still is an important creative player outside of his goal threat. Then again Colombia have still shown good quality even with Rodriguez playing a small role so far. England have no reason to fear Colombia, but the likes of Cuadrado and Quintero have the quality to deliver important set pieces that could test England's defence properly. Yerry Mina has plenty of pace on the counter from the back and Falcao looks like a proper target man who has it in him to out muscle England's back line. The key is not to let Colombia to settle. Their weakness is also at the back. A high press from England could prove the key. Davinson Sanchez of Tottenham is still a raw talent and is often sloppy in position. The longer the game goes at 0-0 and the tighter it is I think Colombia are more likely to tough it out and find a way to win. An aggressive and decisive start is important for England. Its true that if we get past Colombia, there is a great chance to at least make the semi-final (unexpected result before a ball was kicked), but I think Colombia is a tougher task than many are predicting. This is England of course. So far there have been many positives on the pitch and how the manager has gone about his business. But this is still a slowly developing group which is yet to be truly tested. Whatever happens on Tuesday, I think Southgate is the right man moving forward. Even a lacklustre performance and defeat shouldn't change future plans.
Prediction: Colombia 2-2 England (Colombia to win 4-2 on Penalties, this is England remember!).
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