So we arrive at the World Cup end game for me at least (well maybe for the next eight years?), with the nervous looking 2018 field for which even the media on having mustered a great deal excitement. The overall feeling I have is that this is a tournament busting with impressive players and potential big stories, but with a lack of outstanding or standout teams. As in a team that from 1 to 11 are amazing in their individual roles, yet are able to gel into a dominating team unit. Lets look at some of the key issues/questions.
Will the absences of Holland and Italy harm the World Cup?
The standout story from the European Championships two years ago were the feel good stories of Wales and Iceland surprising everyone (the former doing what England couldn't, the later making their mark on popular culture and earning brownie points for putting Roy Hodgson out of his misery as England manager..). Otherwise I thought it was a very unremarkable tournament. The question is does having two of the big hitters not qualifier cheapen what is meant to be the greatest football tournament in the world? I don't think it does. This tournament is filled with big names from throughout the world and once the games kick off there are any number of teams looking fill those giant sized Dutch and Italian egos. No doubt, the World Cup has lost a bit of colour without out them. In its place we've gained a massive headline, and some people have gained the right to shake the heads at the nerve of the countries playing in those nations place! The bigger talking point is whether the absence of Holland and Italy makes the tournament more or less competitive? There are the likes of Colombia, Croatia or even Serbia who feel they have the talent and passion to step up and make the most this situation (no I refuse to say the E word! Although I'm sure Egypt can do something...). The worry for me is that the already fancied nations (and they know who they are) will be able to cement their dominance on the field and had a easier time of things. Its telling that the World Champions Germany are having a rough time of things going into the tournament (and I'm not even talking about the friendlies as they mean nothing), despite the depth of talent, un-Brazil like grit the Brazilians still need to prove they can handle the big occasion (there are plenty of big match winners at club level in their ranks at least), meanwhile, France are the most likely to fill the Dutch void as a team of individuals who explode in an ugly mess of egos, politics and scandals. Does anyone else remember the Raymond Domenech fiasco from eight years ago? Now that's as Paul Weller would say "Entertainment"! The French on paper have one of the best balanced squads, with youth and experience nicely matched. On their day they play some of the best football in the world, its just it normally takes them a very long time to get into their groove. Not to mention I'm convinced all the players hate the manager and secretly believe he more resembles the kit man of the France 98 success than the die hard, tough tackling midfield predator he's been telling describing. Besides many of this squad were barely out of nappies by them, so it could be a case of "What have you done for us lately?".
The other issue is that without Holland or Italy, and with Egypt likely to under perform there could be a lack of mouth watering crunch games as the tournament progresses. Spain against Portugal could be a nice appetizer for the group stages (if not the three course meal it once was, 0-0 anyone?), but realistically if there was ever a time for the enigmas of Morocco VS. Iran, Panama VS. Tunisia or Costa Rica VS. Serbia it is at the group stages. On balance I'd rather have the Italians and Dutch at my party, however, I'm still open to the unexpected.
Can England actually do something this time?
By even posing the question it feels like I've already hyped them up too much! I can only think of the stick Harry Kane got after being press manipulated into saying the dreaded words "I think we can win it!" Lets start with King Harry (no royal jokes please). He is the most unlikely England captain this side of Phil Neville. His name sounds like that of a film noir character, his personality as inspiring as Orlando Bloom's. Truth is he's as impressive as any English centre forward of the last ten years. The last few seasons at Spurs have suggested that he could be the real deal and given time will be a world class all rounder. I just don't see naturally leadership coming from him. Trouble is I don't see it coming from very many around him either. If this does prove the World Cup of youth (France's Kylian Mbappe is tipped by many to be the tournament's breakout star) that could play into England's hands with the likes of Rashford, Maguire and Loftus-Cheek (anyone else feel a song coming on?) ready to turn a few heads. Southgate is the sort of dependable, softly spoken character who has respect and will not let emotions get out of hand. My feeling is that his challenge is more to avoid any big disasters at this World Cup, so that he and many of the squad will be in around and in healthy nick to face the music at future tournaments. Most entertaining of all perhaps are the English fans trying to talk up Panama and Tunisia as a way to not talk up England, and likewise to cram in the normal England will find a way to bugger it up gags! I've settled on, "Hey guys we're actually in a good group. Nothing wrong with saying that. But of course it would be foolish to underestimate anyone and this is England we're talking about here, so you know..." The nerves will doubt kick in if we go into the final group game against Belgium needing a result, but then we'll deal with Belgium when we get to Belgium. If we get passed the group and look half decent then for today's England that has to be progress.
Can Belgium fulfil their promise?
Sorry, but I doubt it. It was a wise choice to make Lukaku their vocal point (this could be his tournament to dominate) while leaving Benteke at home. But ever since his high flying days at Swansea and Wigan (as high flying as a spell at Wigan can be), plus that one good season at Everton, manager Roberto Martinez looks one of the least likely to succeed as a top level coach. His grasp of big match tactics or tactical flexibility has been found wanting. More telling is that Martinez lacks the coolness to bring this fantastic group together. In Hazard and De Bruyne they have two of the World's best players who still have a point to prove on the International stage. Oddly, enough I feel this could be a big tournament for Marouane Fellaini. He brings important balance to a over wise free flowing midfield, is nasty enough to crack a few skulls and is able to make a difference in both penalty areas. Fellaini truly is the ghost of football, exempt for those crucial few moments when he does something important. His presence in the dressing room could be a big one at least. Martinez VS. The Belgian dressing room could be the story of this World Cup.
Will the Host have a good tournament or will all the talking be done off the pitch?
Expectations around the Russian camp seem to be at a all-time low. They have a tricky looking group which includes one of the tournament dark horses in Uruguay. The so called golden generation which looked half decent under the steeling control of Fabio Capello has long since faded. The main problem for the host is that there is so much negative politics flying around the country right now than no one else wants to talk about anything else. Russia as first time hosts is of course a novelty and that could be the thing for them to build on. Outside of the politics the country is one of the most diverse, and the early signs are that they will be welcoming if modest hosts. For them to stand a good chance of escaping the group through the right side I think they probably need to beat Saudi Arabia in today's opener. The one thing I will say is that outside of Uruguay Group A is reasonably open group. On the field I doubt the Russian's will be pulling up any trees, off it there is a chance to create a few positive headlines.
Tournament Predictions:
Winners Brazil
Surprise Package: Croatia
Leading Scorer: Antoine Griezmann
I will be updating this blog throughout the World Cup and will return later for my thoughts on the opening ceremony.
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