With a few short hours to go to until the grand British film business backslap fest otherwise known as the Baftas. I thought I would cast my mind over the contenders for the top prizes, and to give my verdict on who will be shining what at the end of the evening, and who should be leaving with those awards. Along side the biggies I will also predict the winners in every single catagory.
Of course, this will be an interesting year from the point of view of politics during awards season. This aspect is expected to have a presence in two ways at the Baftas, firstly with the prospect of award winners making their feelings known about a certain recent arrival in the White House, as well as something closer to home, with Ken Loach and his film I, Daniel Blake (nominated for four Baftas), raising a very real, but overlooked issue concerning the British benefits system. The BBC has acknowledged that such things might be raised in acceptance speeches, and has said it will edit the awards in such a way as to represent this, while at the same time suggesting that certain content maybe cut short due to length, and to keep focus on the awards themselves. The Baftas could certainly do with some spark to liven proceedings up. For now on with the awards themselves...
BEST FILM
With the exception of the inclusion of I, Daniel Blake, the best film pack pretty much follows the same patten as the Oscars, and though it would be nice to dream of a curve ball winner from either the stunning, and original Sci-Fi thriller Arrival, or the touching and angry Daniel Blake (both truly two of the best films released over the last twelve months), the momentum of the glittering Hollywood nostalgia musical La La Land just seems unstoppable, and any other outcome than that leaving London with the top award would be a major upset. If you want a outside bet, then the tough, black teen drama Moonlight is impressing many.
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Arrival
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
For La La Land in the best film lineup see I, Daniel Blake in this field. Loach's film not only won the top prize at last year's Cannes film festival, but has also gained much press attention and critical acclaim from reviewers and public alike. For my money it is his best film since 2005's The Wind that Shakes the Barley, and is his most political important film for many years. It does have strong competition from a series of films, which personally gives me a bit more hope about the future of our film industry. The biggest challenge to Loach is Scottish director Andrea Arnold for poetic road movie American Honey. Arnold previously won this award in 2007 for her feature length debut Red Road. Since then she has carved out a distinctly bold, if mixed film cannon. Other standouts in this catagory include the atmospheric, and chilling horror drama Under the Shadow, from first time director Babak Anvari, a film that not only works as finely crafted old fashioned chiller, but that is a powerful human drama that takes in the complex political landscape of 1980s Iran. If I had my way, this film would be winning many awards. Documentary Notes on Blindness is also getting a lot of buzz, and would be the other likely film with Arnold film's film to cause an upset.
Will Win: I, Daniel Blake
Should Win: Under the Shadow
BEST DIRECTOR
Considering film is seen as largely a visual medium, one would expect that whatever tends to win the best picture gong at an awards show, should in turn win best director, oddly, that very rarely seems to be the case. This year I do expect that to be the case. Thirty one year old Damien Chazelle certainly showed a maturity beyond his years with previous awards contender, Whiplash, and now is leading the pack to become one of the youngest best directors winners in history with La La Land. Though it would be a worthwhile story if moody auteur Kenneth Lonergan won for his subtle black comedy Manchester by the Sea, though I think his previous two films may have been even better. Tom Ford once again does solid work for the shocking, if slightly empty Nocturnal Animals.
Will Win: Damien Chazelle
Should Win: Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
LEADING ACTRESS
One father in the Fellowship's cap is that unlike the Academy they have quite rightly nominated Amy Adams for Arrival. Adams is one of the most consistent American actresses around, she has great range, and constantly picks diverse and challenging roles. She was sadly used, but made the most out of her part in Nocturnal Animals, but was is in every frame of Arrival, and commands our attention, with an understated, and naturalistic performance. This should have been her year. There is a better mix of actresses represented here than at the Oscars, with the underrated Emily Blunt also getting a nod for thriller The Girl on the Train. In the past Blunt has impressed in character driven comedies, but for this part transforms herself successfully for a hard hitting, and downbeat, if stylish offering. In reality, best actress is a head to head race between Emma Stone for La La Land (Stone is well liked), and previously awards winner Natalie Portman for her portrayal of Jackie Kennedy in Jackie. I've long been a Portman fan, and think her casting here is pretty much on the money, however I think there are more deserving talents going up against her.
Will Win: Natalie Portman
Should Win: Amy Adams
LEADING ACTOR
The best actor race is crowded in a big shadow. The favourite seems to be Casey Affleck, an fine character actor who once again does fine work as the moody outsider of indie feature Manchester by the Sea. Affleck's past, with a claim of sexual assault hanging other him has been a major talking point, as has the suggestion that his famous brother and Hollywood friends have been using their influence to get him out of a tight spot. Whatever, the case, there's not doubt about his talent, and it is due some awards praise (though often that can be the kiss of death). Again there is plenty of talent in catagory. Though I had issues with Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals, it did feature another standout performance in a very challenging roles, from the consistent Jake Gyllenhaal. The film presented a look at the darkside of masculity, and is a skillful two-header from Gyllenhaal who brilliantly changes as the film progresses. The other big hitter is Andrew Garfield for war movie Hacksaw Ridge. Garfield was sadly under looked for The Social Network a few years back, and did great work in Scorsese's Silence recently.
Will Win: Casey Affleck
Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Supporting actor appears a wide open race. Dev Patel gave an emotionally charge performance in a tricky leading role (don't get why he's considered supporting here), in true life story Lion. Aaron Taylor-Johnson was truly gross and terrifying in Nocturnal Animals, sadly I think the unconventional story and edgy nature of his character may see his performance to be overlooked. Jeff Bridges brings lots of hammy weight in a dark horse part in Hell and High Water. Mahershala Ali should have strong claim for Moonlight also.
Will Win: Dev Patel
Should Win: Aaron Taylor-Johnson
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hayley Squires certainly makes a great impression in Loach's powerful drama. Her character is not just a very likeable presence, but a positive view of a section of the working class often given a rough ride in film and television. Its a very passionate and tender performance, and Followship could do worse than give it its due. On the other hand Michelle Williams, has a strong history at getting nominations at major awards, but is yet to win. She remains one of the most consistent and daring Hollywood performances. Its a rare flaw of Manchester by the Sea that she is not given more screen time, and her character was a bit under served in the final act of the film, but again its a mark of a great actress that she does so much with so little. Nicole Kidman is solid in Lion, but her appearance did distract me, and sometimes she is more suited in nasty roles. Naomi Harris is another fantastic British actress who is finally getting some attention for her turn in Moonlight. I think it might come down to either Harris or the more experienced Viola Davis.
Will Win: Naomie Harris.
Should Win: Michelle Williams.
Other Predictions:
Adapted Screenplay: Nocturnal Animals
Original Screenplay: Moonlight
Cinematography: La La Land
Editing: La La Land
Makeup and Hair: Florence Foster Jenkins
Costume Design: La La Land
Production Design: Fantastic Beast and Where to Find Them
Special Visual Effects: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Outstanding Debut: Notes on Blindness
Film Not in the English Language: Toni Erdmann
Documentary: 13th
Animated Film: Kubo and the Two Strings
Original Music: La La Land
Sound: Hacksaw Ridge
British Short Film: Home
British Short Animation: Tough
EE Rising Star: Ruth Nigga
Keith Beard.
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